Friday, April 4, 2008

Obama’s Support Softens in Poll, Suggesting a Peak Has Passed

The news analysis cycle is very short in American media (and perhaps all media, certainly in other places than the US), and conclusive analysis is the wont. Politics is at the very center of such punditry.

Senator Barack Obama's support among Democrats nationally has softened over the last month, particularly among men and upper-income voters ... Mr. Obama’s favorability rating among Democratic primary voters has dropped seven percentage points, to 62 percent, since the last Times/CBS News survey, in late February. While that figure is by any measure high, the decline came in a month during which he endured withering attacks from Mrs. Clinton and responded to reports that his former pastor had made politically inflammatory statements from his church’s pulpit in Chicago.

One can find good news or bad news in polls, if one looks hard enough, and in enough places.

Still, the events of the last month do not appear to have fundamentally altered the race for the party’s nomination or provided what Mrs. Clinton’s campaign has been seeking: evidence of a collapse in Mr. Obama’s standing or an overwhelming preference voiced for Mrs. Clinton by Democratic voters in polls, developments that could be used to persuade uncommitted superdelegates to sign on with her.

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