Oil, Falklands, Malvinas

European Pressphoto Agency - Argentine President Cristina Kirchner, right, is trying to get Latin American leaders to sign a statement backing Argentina's claim to the islands

A British oil rig started drilling in disputed waters off the Falkland Islands on Monday, as Argentina tried to rally support from Latin American nations for a diplomatic statement backing Argentina's claim to the islands and criticizing the U.K. for violating Argentine sovereignty.

The move by British oil companies to initiate exploration off the Falklands has stirred passions over the remote South Atlantic islands to perhaps their highest point since 1982, when Argentina lost a brief war to Britain over control of the islands. No one predicts armed hostilities this time, but nationalist rhetoric has been flying on both sides of the Atlantic. If Britain finds large amounts of oil, relations could get stickier.

Can't see Gordon Brown doing a Thatcher.


Argentina's leftist President Cristina Kirchner was in Cancún, Mexico, on Monday working on a diplomatic response during a previously scheduled summit of Latin American leaders. Mrs. Kirchner was trying to get regional leaders to sign a statement condemning the U.K. and backing Argentina's claim to the islands, known in Spanish as the Malvinas.

Argentina was getting support from some quarters, such as Venezuela's leftist President Hugo Chávez. "In case of aggression against Argentina, rest assured that the Argentine nation will not be alone" as it was in the 1982 war, Mr. Chávez said Sunday.

On Univision's broadcast last night a clip was shown of Hugo telling the Queen of England that the era of empires has ended. Wonder if Elizabeth was watching.

Bill Rammell, the U.K.'s minister of state for the armed forces, said the Falklands had a "legitimate right" to develop an oil industry within its waters and that Britain had made Argentina aware of its determination to protect that right.

"We do, we have, and we will take whatever steps are necessary to protect the Falkland Islands—and our counterparts in Argentina are aware of that," he told the House of Commons.

The government has to stand strong; Brown can not afford to look weak. Surely the Tories are holding his feet to the fire.

Mrs. Kirchner had ratcheted up pressure over the islands last week, issuing a decree that ships traveling to the Falklands must first seek permission from Buenos Aires before entering Argentine waters.

This is manna from heaven for Presidenta Kirchner, an external crisis.

Argentina emphasized that it was intent on pursuing its objectives by peaceful means. No one in Argentina seemed eager for a repeat of the shooting war that started in April 1982, when Argentina's dictatorship, facing deepening discontent at home, seized the islands in a surprise attack. The U.K. government of Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher sent a naval task force across the Atlantic and retook the Falklands, at the cost of 649 Argentine and 255 British servicemen killed.

In the nearly three decades since the war, Argentina has gone from a military dictatorship to a democracy. Argentine political scientist Rosendo Fraga wrote on Monday that Argentina has cut military spending by a greater amount than any other South American country since Mrs. Kirchner's husband and predecessor, Nestor Kirchner, took office in 2003. Nevertheless, analysts say that putting forth a vigorous diplomatic defense of Argentina's historic claims to the Falklands could help Mrs. Kirchner politically at a time when she has sunk far in the polls because of the flagging economy.

Exactly.


For some Argentines, the oil dispute has reopened an old wound. On Sunday, computer hackers launched a cyber attack on the Web site of the Falklands newspaper Penguin News, posting an Argentine flag, a patriotic march and a manifesto affirming Argentina's claim to the islands. In the U.K., Argentina has been on the receiving end of potshots in the press. The Sunday Telegraph has dubbed Mrs. Kirchner the "Botox Evita."

Argentine Leader Fights Bank Move

Mrs. Kirchner and her husband and predecessor, Nestor, are fighting back, but their popularity is near an all-time low, they don't have much money in the till without the reserves, and only 21 months remain until elections in which Mr. Kirchner has been laying groundwork to run.

The Kirchners reacted fiercely when Judge María José Sarmiento on Friday barred the central bank from transferring reserves and reinstated the bank president Mrs. Kirchner had fired the day before for refusing to do so. Mr. Kirchner said that his wife was victim of a "permanent conspiracy" and said Judge Sarmiento was biased and the ruling "a shame" to the judiciary.


It is a little weird to keep reading about Peronists. The Kirchners are supposed to be Peronists, yet they are not the only ones to claim the mantle of Juan Domingo Perón, a fascist military dictator.



Part of the reason [for the erosion of presidential power and rising opposition thereto] is that Kirchners are exhausting the power of the purse, critical in the patronage-oriented Peronist political system. Total public spending grew from 29.5% of output in 2003 when Mr. Kirchner took office to around 37% in 2008, his wife's first full year in office. With a budget surplus withering away, Mrs. Kirchner tried to shore up funds in 2008 by raising the grain export tax. Nationwide protests by farmers led to a vote in the senate that torpedoed the tax increase.

Presidenta  Kirchner nationalized pensions, and now is trying to use currency reserves to service national debt, so to have more funds free for her own purposes. Her line of defense is to say, in snippets of speeches and news conferences I've seen on Spanish-language news (Anglo news utterly ignore anything that is not an acute crisis in Latin America), that when the opposition were in power they did not govern well, thus they should now stop their opposition to her programs and let her govern.

Ay, Cristina (Kirchner)

Martín Redrado, the chief of Argentina's Central Bank who is in an increasingly tense political dispute with President Cristina Fernandez, talks to reporters as he leaves the bank's headquarters in Buenos Aires on Friday. A court issued two rulings Friday, blocking the use of foreign-currency reserves to pay debt, and revoking her dismissal of the central-bank chief.

This is a contest of wills. President Kirchner, the current one, supported, of course, by the previous President Kirchner (Cristina and Nelson, respectively), is demanding that about $7 billion (or, about, 26 billion Argentinian pesos) be released from the central bank-controlled reserves, and used to service foreign debt. Señor Redrado refused. He got sacked.

A federal judge blocked President Cristina Kirchner from using foreign-currency reserves to pay Argentina's national debt and revoked her dismissal of the central-bank chief who opposed that policy.

The twin legal defeats for the government injected further uncertainty in the battle for control of the central-bank reserves. The dispute, which has put Argentina on the verge of a constitutional crisis and placed the president and the opposition-controlled Congress at loggerheads, led to a selloff in the country's bond and stock markets.


A selloff? I don't know who the hell owns any Argentinian securities. Talk about speculation.


Mr. Redrado said he was motivated by the principle of central-bank independence. "It's necessary to keep working for ideas," he said. "We have shown commitment to maintaining the prestige of the Central Bank."

Mrs. Kirchner defended using a portion of the $48 billion in reserves to pay debt.

"It's much better to use the reserves than to take loans at 15% interest," President Kirchner said in remarks at a political event. She added that Mr. Redrado had been guilty of misconduct, and she was within her rights to dismiss him.


I think the expression at loggerheads is apt.


Roberto Sifon Arevalo, a director in the Latin America Sovereign Ratings Group at Standard & Poor's said compromising central-bank authority is disturbing to investors.

"There is a conceptual reason why people focus on the independence of the central bank," he said. "In a context where you already have inflationary pressures, if you don't have that independence and you have a central bank that starts financing current expenditures, then that's going to get significantly worse."

The  US Congress is walking the same way, proposing to curb the Fed's independence.

Populist president faces dwindling support

Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa is finding that a weak economy, electricity shortages and a confrontational governing style have undermined support for his government, not three years after taking office in a landslide that highlighted the rise of populist leaders in Latin America.

His governing style might be disliked by the press, and the Journal, but what proof is there that his governing style has undermined popular support?

Polls taken last month show that approval ratings for the 46-year-old socialist have fallen into the mid-40s, well down from the 73% he had soon after taking office in early 2007, pollster Cedatos-Gallup International said Wednesday.

That slide matches the drop in support for leftist allies such as Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez and Argentine President Cristina Fernandez. Lower commodities prices have undermined their ability to sustain spending programs, while rising crime and electricity shortages in resource-rich nations underscore the rampant inefficiency of parts of the public sector.

As the patronage ebbs along with the government coffers, the failure of some statist policies is becoming more evident. Meanwhile, a dearth of private-sector investment has meant some of these sputtering economies have little to fall back on. The nationalist rhetoric and attacks on the opposition no longer resonate as strongly as they did when leftist leaders came to power riding a wave of antipathy toward market-oriented economies.

All three leaders enjoy considerable influence over the legislative and judicial branches, making it harder to blame the opposition when entitlement programs dry up just as unemployment and inflation are on the rise.

Quite true.

GDP Is Depressed, so are Argentinians

Argentina topped a world ranking of psychologists per capita compiled by the World Health Organization in 2005:

Psychologists per 100,000 inhabitants

Argentina: 121.2
Denmark: 85
Finland: 79
Switzerland: 76
Norway: 68
Germany: 51.5
Canada: 35
Brazil: 31.8
USA: 31.1
Ecuador: 29.1




A poster promoting one of Gabriel Rolón's "Divan Chat" speaking engagements, top left, was seen next to ads for music concerts in Buenos Aires in August.

• Page One
• August 15, 2009

Foreign Talent Loads the Bases in Minor Leagues

More Visas Spur Deals From Haiti to India; Korean Teen Scores Big

By JOEL MILLMAN

BOISE, Idaho -- Like many teenagers spending this summer abroad, Hak-Ju Lee is immersing himself in a foreign culture, making friends and tasting exotic food like moose stew. Unlike most teens, however, he's getting paid three-quarters of a million dollars to do it.

Mr. Lee, 18 years old, is a shortstop, and the culture he is experiencing is American minor-league baseball, where major-league teams develop their talent in small towns across the country.

For decades, minor-league rosters seemed the essence of America's heartland. But thanks to growing numbers of foreign players like Mr. Lee, the minors are fast turning into a veritable United Nations.

The Boise Hawks' Imported Talent

View Slideshow

Sean Flanigan for the Wall Street Journal

Hak-Ju Lee is one of 18 international players on the Boise baseball roster.

The gangly infielder is one of three South Koreans playing this summer for the Boise Hawks, an affiliate of the Chicago Cubs. The Hawks' opening-day roster boasted 18 of 25 players from abroad -- mostly Venezuela and the Dominican Republic -- making it one of the most "imported" of all minor-league teams.

Recent changes in U.S. immigration law and growing competition in baseball for raw talent have allowed the minor-league farm system to flourish with imported players. It has been a home run for globalization, but bad news for U.S.-born players, who suddenly have much more competition. Across the minor and major leagues, the total number of foreign-born players is growing fast, to almost 3,500 of the 8,532 players under contract this summer, from 2,964 three years ago.

Boise Hawks' hitting instructor, Ricardo Medina, a native of Panama who translates at team meetings in what has become almost a bilingual program, notes that Mr. Lee and his Korean teammates are getting something else from their summer in Idaho. "I think they may be learning more Spanish than English," he jokes.

The three South Koreans on the Hawks' roster matches the total number playing at the major-league level. Today, 19 Koreans play in the minor leagues, compared with just seven five years ago.

This summer's crop of foreign players in the minors includes baseball's first-ever pros from India, two of them on the Pittsburgh Pirates' Gulf Coast league team. That league's rosters include players from Honduras, Haiti, Russia and the Czech Republic.

Minor League Baseball Becomes Melting Pot

2:33

As a result of unlimited work visas, minor league baseball is seeing a new influx of international players. Joel Millman reports from Boise, Idaho.

Eight teams have minor leaguers from Brazil, including Fábio Murakami, an outfielder for the Philadelphia Phillies' Williamsport, Pa., minor-league team, the Crosscutters. Mr. Murakami is one of several South Americans of Japanese descent in the minors, a list that includes Claudio Fukunaga and Lucas Nakandakare, both from Argentina and under contract to Tampa Bay.

One Red Sox farm team boasts an even more exotic tandem: the brothers Crew Tipene Moanaroa, called "Boss," and Hohua Moanaroa, called "Moko." Born in New South Wales, Australia, the Moanaroas are believed to be the first members of New Zealand's Maori tribe to play baseball professionally in the U.S. "Boss" is a first baseman. "Moko" plays outfield.

New Zealand's representative in the minors is Scott Campbell. He plays third base for the Blue Jays' Eastern League affiliate, the New Hampshire Fisher Cats.

The surge of young foreign players into the U.S. minor leagues began in 2007, a few months after then-president and former major-league team owner George W. Bush signed the Creating Opportunities for Minor League Professionals, Entertainers and Teams Act, known as the Compete Act. It freed the farm systems of major-league teams from having to compete with all U.S. employers seeking H2B work visas for foreign employees, the supply of which usually was exhausted each year by February. Now, teams can import as many prospects as they want.

"There is no longer a limit on work visas," explains Oneri Fleita, the Florida-born director of minor-league development for the Cubs. "So, yeah, you might see more foreign players getting an opportunity."

The Cubs, who signed Korea's Hak-Ju Lee right out of high school, have become one of the most aggressive signers of foreign players. In 2006, 86 players in the Cubs' major and minor-league system were foreign-born. This year, 142 Cubs are imports.

The changes pose a challenge to American teens hoping to make the big leagues. Instead of signing hundreds of U.S. amateurs out of high school -- the traditional business model for stocking minor-league rosters -- teams are drafting fewer U.S. kids and signing more so-called nondraft free agents, the vast majority of them teenagers from Latin America.

Foreign Exchange

See the statistics of the players mentioned in this story:

Hak-Ju Lee (South Korea), Boise Hawks

Fabio Murakami (Brazil), Williamsport Crosscutters

Claudio Fukunaga (Argentina), Gulf Coast League Rays

Lucas Nakandakare (Argentina), Gulf Coast League Rays

Crew Tipene Moanaroa (Australia), Gulf Coast League Red Sox

Hohua Moanaroa (Australia), Gulf Coast League Red Sox

Scott Campbell (New Zealand), New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Eduardo Figueroa (Venezuela), Boise Hawks

George Matheus (Venezuela), Boise Hawks

Eric Gonzalez (Canary Islands), Lake Elsinore Storm

This summer, major-league teams spent over $70 million signing nondraft free agents from outside the country. That is up from $54 million last year, and just under $30 million in 2006, the last year before the Compete Act.

Economics plays a huge role. U.S.-born players drafted out of high school rarely sign a contract to turn pro without a cash bonus, most in excess of $100,000. This summer, the Cubs have forked out more than $6 million in signing bonuses to 26 U.S. prospects, an average of nearly a quarter million apiece.

While some foreign players like Mr. Lee got hefty signing bonuses, the majority do not. Latin players in particular can be had for a lot less -- just $10,000 in the case of Venezuelan pitcher Eduardo Figueroa, one of Mr. Lee's teammates. Third baseman George Matheus, another Hawk from Venezuela, received $15,000 for signing.

Lifting visa limits creates an opportunity for players like Eric Gonzalez, a 22-year-old Spaniard in the San Diego Padres' farm system. Mr. Gonzalez was the last player drafted by the Atlanta Braves in 2005, when he was a 17-year-old high-schooler in the Canary Islands. But under the work-visa cap then prevailing in baseball, the Braves would have had to release another foreign prospect to sign him, Mr. Gonzalez explains, "or else send me somewhere overseas to play, probably Australia."

So Mr. Gonzalez didn't get a shot, and instead polished his skills at the University of South Alabama. Signed by the Padres after graduating last year, he has already whipped through one level of minor-league competition, winning a promotion from the Fort Wayne TinCaps to the Lake Elsinore Storm in July. But the cash rewards will have to wait. "I signed for $1,000, before taxes," laughs Mr. Gonzales, one of two Spaniards in the minors this year. "Basically, I signed in exchange for a plane ticket and a work visa."

In the past, visa restrictions meant many foreign prospects were sent to play for sister teams in places like the Dominican Republic and Australia, where they tried to get enough visibility to fill a coveted visa spot. Nowadays, teams figure they can train foreign talent personally, and give youngsters a chance to learn English and assimilate with U.S.-born teammates.

On both counts, South Korea's Mr. Lee is an enthusiastic student. "Stolen base! Slider! Fastball! Right down the middle!" the teenager recently shouted with a smile, demonstrating the English terms he's mastered since arriving in Idaho.

Much like in an exchange-student program, local families host foreign ballplayers, getting season tickets in return. Mr. Lee lives in a suburban home festooned with heads of antelope and deer and other hunting trophies. He has learned to play Rock Band with his 17-year-old host-family "brother," a ballplayer who is entering his senior year in high school.

His typical teenage observation about life in America: lack of sleep. "Bus ride after game from Vancouver?" he groans, feigning fatigue. "Thirteen hours! Oh, my God. Tired!"

I'll be back ... somehow

Secretary of State Clinton will meet with deposed Honduras President Manuel Zelaya, emphasizing US support for his return to office.

In response, Mr. Zelaya was heading to Washington on Monday night -- and after meeting with Mrs. Clinton, will announce plans to try to enter Honduras again, said his housing minister Luis Roland Valenzuela, who was ousted with Mr. Zelaya. "It could be by air, sea or land," Mr. Valenzuela said. "We are not going to say where."

Once inside, what do they propose to do?

Deputy Foreign Minister Martha Lorena Alvarado said "We can talk about anything else but Mr. Zelaya's return to power. If he returns, he would have to be arrested and tried." She said Mr. Zelaya faces charges including treason that could bring a heavy prison sentence.

Perhaps they shoul;d have arrested him rather than exile him. Had they done so, his coterie of supporters surely would have raised a storm of protests.



What a coterie, n'est-ce pas?

Correa of Ecuador, Zelaya himself, Mauricio Funes of El Salvador, Cristina Kirchner of Argentina, Fernando Lugo of Paraguay, and OAS secretary-general José Miguel Insulza.










Honduras has been diplomatically isolated since soldiers, acting on a warrant from the Supreme Court, burst into Mr. Zelaya's house and arrested him in a predawn raid June 28. The court had ruled that Mr. Zelaya had illegally pushed forward on an effort to rewrite the constitution to remain in power.

That's the irony of it: he was breaking the law, defying congress, defying the Supreme Court.

Invade Israel a Gaza

A story in Mexico's El Universal's website: Israeli ground forces enter the Gaza Strip.

12:54 Fuerzas terrestres de Israel comenzaron a cruzar la frontera con la Franja de Gaza el sábado, en una expansión de su ofensiva iniciada hace una semana contra los gobernantes milicianos de la región, informó el ejército israelí.

Israeli ground forces began crossing the frontier with the Gaza Strip on Saturday, in a widening of its offensive begun a week ago against the governing militia of the region, the Israeli Army announced.

I am unclear what the word milicianos means; militia is what Google translate gives me.

The New York Times website also has stories on the military invasion.

Israeli Ground Forces Push Into Gaza

New Stage Begins in 8-Day Offensive Against Hamas - 5 minutes ago [2.17 pm]
Israeli troops backed by tanks and helicopters advanced into Gaza on Saturday in the first ground action of an offensive against Hamas.

News Analysis Israel Weighs Goal: Ending Hamas Rule, Rocket Fire, or Both by Ethan Bronner: If Hamas rockets cannot be stopped, then is the real aim of Israel’s operation to remove Hamas entirely, no matter the cost?

Corriere de la Sera, Milan's newspaper: I tank entrano nella Striscia, scontri a fuoco con Hamas. Tanks enter the Strip, fighting Hamas.


Dagens Nyheter - Stockholm: Markstyrkor inne i Gaza. Ground troops in GazaIsrael trappade på lördagskvällen upp anfallen mot Gazaremsan med minst en en markoffensiv. On Saturday evening Israel steps up attacks on Gaza Strip with a land offensive.

Venezuela's El Universal: Ejército israelí inicia invasión terrestre en Gaza. Israeli army begins land invasion in Gaza.

La Nacion, Buenos Aires: Comenzó una nueva etapa militar de Israel sobre la Franja de Gaza. A new Israeli military stage began over Gaza Strip. (Sources: Reuters, AP and AFP)

Le Monde, Paris: L'armée israélienne est entrée dans la bande de Gaza. Israeli army enters the Gaza Strip

Chile Deal Spices Up Wal-Mart

In today's print edition of the Journal the offer by Wal-Mart to buy D&S (Distribución y Servicio) is advertised.

Buying D&S will give Wal-Mart an instant hold on 33% of Chile's grocery market, which can be linked to Wal-Mart's existing distribution chain running from Argentina to Mexico.

Instantly, it'll have a third of the market. More, Wal-Mart will use its existing distribution chain, which should reduce per unit costs.

D&S operates through a variety of store sizes, including smaller locations to compete with local shops in underdeveloped regions. Wal-Mart has experience with a similar model in Mexico, where it operates through 68% subsidiary Wal-Mart de México, known as Walmex. As it did with Walmex, Wal-Mart is only buying a majority stake in D&S. The family that now controls the retailer will keep a minority stake, which means Wal-Mart has an experienced local connection in the company.

Argentina's pensions

La Presidenta is trying to get her hands on private pension monies to bail out her government.

Congress has yet to approve Argentine President Cristina Kirchner's move to seize $28 billion of retirement savings to fund her cash-strapped government, but already the plan has produced a thicket of problems. One troubling reaction: Argentines are cashing their peso bank accounts and lining up to buy dollars at crowded exchange houses. The peso fell 7% last month, prompting the central bank to spend at least $1 billion to defend it.

Memories of the 2001 crisis remain.

Many view Mrs. Kirchner's pension move last month as a sign of desperation that could presage other unorthodox policy decisions. Memories of the government's decision to freeze deposits during the last crisis are still fresh.

Aside from Argentinians themselves, others are troubled (that is, scared) be Cristina's reaching for the pensions.

Mrs. Kirchner's plan has stirred trouble outside Argentina as well. This week, a U.S. judge froze up to $1.6 billion held in the U.S. by the Argentine pension funds that Mrs. Kirchner is hoping to nationalize. U.S. bondholders are suing to recover money they lost when Argentina defaulted during the last crisis. Mrs. Kirchner had ordered the pension funds to repatriate overseas assets ahead of the nationalization.

Nice and subtle, eh? Repatriate it, and then it'll be nationalized.

Argentina ran out of money in 2001 and committed history's biggest sovereign-debt default. The commodity boom brought a brief recovery, but the boom is over, and left the nation saddled with debt. Faced with at least $11 billion of debt payments next year, Mrs. Kirchner wants to raid the accounts to avoid defaulting while maintaining politically sensitive welfare payments, analysts say.

Pork-barrel, earmarks, call it what you will, it's a global practice.

Argentina's privately managed pension system was set up in the mid-1990s, and the accounts were devastated in the 2001 crisis. Mrs. Kirchner says she is nationalizing the accounts to protect them from market volatility.

O, right: gimme the money, I'll protect it. Does a bridge come along with it?







Employees of private pension companies protest the government's plan to nationalize pension funds in Buenos Aires last week. President Kirchner defends her plan as a way to protect money from the global financial crisis.

Cristina to nationalize pension fund

Kirchner strikes again.

Argentina's leftist government pressed forward with its controversial plan to nationalize private pension funds, laying out investment guidelines for the funds it wants to seize and lobbying Congress to approve the proposal.

They need money, badly, so they're acting badly.

Taking over the $30 billion in pension fund assets will ease the cash crunch faced by President Cristina Kirchner's government, but it has jolted investor confidence and triggered a dollar outflow.

What a disaster.

In advance of what is shaping up as a heated debate over the proposal in Congress, Mrs. Kirchner once again made her case for public pensions on Monday. "The public [sector] was considered a bad word ... and the state synonymous with inefficiency," she said. "The good of the private sector and the bad in the public sector were highlighted. We have to give the public sector its due."

Huh?

Cristina loses another

Her chief of Cabinet (perhaps chief of staff) has resigned. Madrid's El Pais states that he was one of the politicians closest to La Presidenta and her husband, ex-president Néstor Kirchner.

La crisis del agro sigue pasándole factura a la presidenta Cristina Fernández. El Gobierno argentino ha anunciado este miércoles la dimisión del jefe de Gabinete, Alberto Fernández, uno de los políticos más cercanos a la presidenta y su esposo, el ex mandatario Néstor Kirchner.

She has a new jefe, Sergio Massa, who, reports Argentina's La Nacion, asserts La Presidenta has told him to increase dialogue with governors and legislators.

Another story in La Nacion has it that Cristina avoided speaking of the resignation in her first public appearance after said resignation.

En su primera aparición pública tras la renuncia del jefe de Gabinete, Alberto Fernández, y la decisión de reemplazarlo por el intendente de Tigre, Sergio Massa, la presidenta Cristina Kirchner evitó referirse al tema y, en cambio, destacó al equipo de trabajo del flamante secretario de Agricultura, Ganadería, Pesca y Alimentos, Carlos Cheppi.

Cristina: no

La Presidenta gave in, and cancelled the failed bill: Argentina Drops Farm-Export Tax reads the headline of the story. A picture of Cristina Fernandez and her vice president appears in the WSJ slide show. It speaks for itself, really.

Argentina's President Kirchner spoke with Mr. Cobos, far left, on June 17.

Kirchner proposal defeated

No to the soybean tariff a "huge political setback for the leftist government, which had invested an enormous amount of its credibility and political capital in the measure. "

Obviously she is not very good at counting noses or votes, if her own vice-president voted against her proposal.
Farm leaders and others watch, on
an open-air screen in Buenos Aires,
the Argentine Senate move toward
rejection of a soybean-export tax increase.

Now, for Mrs. Kirchner to get her eight–month–old presidency back on the rails, analysts said, she will have to try to reinvent herself and adopt a more consensus–based governing approach, rather than restricting decision–making to a tight inner circle centered around her husband, the ex–president Néstor Kirchner.

Or become even more confrontational.

the Kirchner government tried to frame the tax fight as nothing less than an effort to preserve Argentine democracy. The Kirchners repeatedly characterized tax opponents as "coup–mongers" and tried associating them with Argentina's repressive military dictatorships of the 1970s and early 1980s. Farm interests and tax opponents wanted "to remove the government from office and destabilize the nation," said Mr. Kirchner, who is leader of the governing Peronist party.

That didn't work. So they tried a heavy hand.

While support for farmers rose, the government was increasingly forced to rely on the backing of groups that many Argentines consider unacceptable, such as Peronist unions, which have often been linked to corruption, or bands of piqueteros, unemployed people from the barrios who depend heavily on government social programs.
That didn't work either.

Early Wednesday, the government expressed confidence that it had lined up a majority of the 72 senators to vote in favor of the proposal. A handful of senators deserted the government during the day, leaving the vote deadlocked 36–36 early Thursday morning.

Bad political leadership, to lose support so easily so late. Then it came down to how Julio Cobos would vote.

Argentine political columnist Joaquin Morales Sola wrote that Mr. Cobos's vote marked the end of a period when the Kirchners could pretty much govern Argentina as they pleased.

Oy, Cristina

Seems La Presidenta Cristina Fernández can't get her agrarian law passed no which way : her vice president, Julian Cobos, who is also head of the Senate, voted against it. Not difficult to imagine, is it, just how pissed off the Kirchners are right about now.

El País.es has a story on it: Argentine Senate knocks down the tariff law is the headline; the subhead reads the chamber president and VP of the nation breaks the technical tie in favor of "no" after a debate of more than 17 hours. Peronism receives a hard knock. "It doesn't cross my mind to resign," affirms veep.
La Nación, Buenos Aires, has many a commentary. I took one.

This is a major defeat. Cristina put on a full-court press to get it passed, including making a major speech in the main plaza. Nestor did not hide he was twisting arms and knocking heads to get it done. Not only was the bill defeated, not only did it not pass, but the one vote that defeated it is Cristina's VP.
Argentinian blogs are buzzing, of course. This picture has Cobos as San Martín. Another shows Cristina at Nestor's funeral: notice the other military, on the right, placing the wreath of honor on the casket.

Argentine Tax Plan Lands a Tough Ally

Ongoing saga in Argentina. Last week a story told of Nestor, former president, organizing a rally in support of Cristina, La Presidenta, his wife. This is the other side: not nice, but physically intimidating.

When pro-government activist Luis D'Elia crossed paths with one of Argentina's rural antigovernment protesters at a demonstration in March, they spent only a few seconds discussing agrarian policy. Then, while the farm backer was glancing away, the stout, jowly Mr. D'Elia socked him with a right to the head. Mr. D'Elia is the leader of one of the country's most prominent organizations of piqueteros, or picketers, groups of unemployed barrio residents who are available to join rallies on short notice. The piqueteros have served as Mrs. Kirchner's shock troops in a four-month fight over the government's move to impose a politically unpopular soybean-export tax.

Shock troops, or physical goons, one supposes.

The Kirchner government maintains cash stipends to low-income families, and many piqueteros are beneficiaries. Some piqueteros have also benefited from government programs such as financial support for low-income housing.

Allies.

Last month, Mr. D'Elia suggested people get ready to defend the Kirchner government by exercising their constitutional right to take up arms. In an intemperate radio interview, Mr. D'Elia growled, "I hate whites...I hate the Argentine high classes, which have done so much harm, which have killed so many people, in the name of one flag, which is the flag of their own gain."

As if Nestor and Cristina aren't white?

How do I define demagoguery? Thus: Mrs. Kirchner has said that the farmers have been blocking roads and taking to the streets, just as the piqueteros do, but haven't faced the same disdain because they aren't poor.

A glacier breaks

Found this picture in El Universal. Caption: Vista de los desmoronamientos de hielo sobre el Canal de los Témpanos, causados por la grieta generada por la presión del agua, en el dique natural formado en el glaciar Perito Moreno, entre el brazo Rico y el Lago Argentino.

View of the collapse of ice over the Canal of the Témpanos (Ice Floes), caused by the rift generated by water pressure, in the natural dam formed in the Black Perito glacier, between the Rich arm and the Lake Angentine.

Cristina, Nestor, or maybe Evita

Two for the price of one ain't such a bargain.

When Cristina Kirchner was elected in October to succeed her husband as president of Argentina, he guaranteed he would let his wife stand on her own two feet. "I would do very badly by interfering," Nestor Kirchner said. But Mr. Kirchner couldn't help but interfere when Mrs. Kirchner faced her first domestic political challenge, helping to turn a dispute with farmers into a full-blown political disaster.

Cellphone Data Track Our Migration Patterns

Fascinating story highlighting the efficacy and ease of using available data, as well as its dangers and potential abuses. I particularly enjoy that the focal point is Flushing.

The one stat that jumps out at me is how significant the percentage of calls to Porto, Portugal is: 9% of calls from Flushing.

Cellphone users are spiders of the electromagnetic spectrum, spinning intricate, invisible threads of data about themselves as they walk and talk throughout the day.

Physicists, urban planners and social scientists are eagerly weaving millions of these electronic threads into patterns of people on the move, through studies that until now were all but impossible.

What makes things possible is that all calls are in the phone companies records: number dialing, number called, minutes spoken. The phone company also knows who owns the calling number, and might known the called number, too.

More than 3.3 billion wireless-phone subscribers world-wide have, in effect, voluntarily adopted devices that record their daily movements in the same way satellite sensors monitor migrating birds, whales, bears and other wildlife. Such precise positioning data, automatically collected by cellphone companies, makes privacy advocates queasy but has social scientists dazzled by the research possibilities.


3.3 billion people voluntarily, perhaps unknowingly or oblivious or indifferent to the consequences of their calling habits being known, allow their privacy to be available. It does, surely, also provide intriguing possibilities.

Presidenta Kirchner on the attack

Con una dura embestida al Gobierno, el campo suspendió el paro por un mes - With a hard hit at the government, the country suspended its strike for one month. La Presidenta Kirchner gets breathing room. And keeps the water roiling.

Another story has this headline: El reclamo de las Islas Malvinas es includicable: Reclaiming the Malvinas [British call them Falklands] is unwavering. Further, she denounced the shame of having a colonial enclave in the 21st Century.