Showing posts with label PIMCO. Show all posts
Showing posts with label PIMCO. Show all posts

Sunday, June 21, 2009

Treasury’s Got Bill Gross on Speed Dial

Appearing on TV and bending the ear of the White House, Bill Gross of Pimco has emerged as one of the nation's most influential financiers.





Months ago, before the election, he wrote an open letter to then-candidate Obama (whom he predicted would become president, proving his prescience and instinct yet again), outlining what he saw as the right course to take in tackling the job of fixing the national economy. [See especially post of 1 July2008, and others, including one of 20 January 2009]
Every day, Bill Gross, the world’s most successful bond fund manager, withdraws into a conference room at lunchtime with his lieutenants to discuss his firm’s investments. The blinds are drawn to keep out the sunshine, and he forbids any fiddling with BlackBerrys or cellphones. He wants everyone disconnected from the outside world and focused on what matters most to him: mining riches for his clients at Pimco, the swiftly growing money management firm.

How I wish I had that power, even if for a few minutes, to have people shut off their electronic devices and rely on their own brain.

Such nationalization [as advocated by Nouriel Roubini and Paul Krugman, to temporarily nationalize zombie banks], Mr. Gross insists, would be an unmitigated disaster. “There are two grand plans,” he said this spring at a meeting of his firm’s investment committee. “One is the Krugman-Roubini plan. They think the banks have so much garbage they are beyond hope. The other side is the administration’s side. That’s the one we’re on. If the other side should ever gain credence, then we’ll have something to worry about.”

Timothy F. Geithner, the treasury secretary, wants investors like Pimco to work with the government to buy some bank debt.






Mr. Gross is hardly a disinterested observer. Pimco, owned by the German insurer Allianz, is jockeying to be picked by Mr. Geithner to relieve the likes of Bank of America, Citigroup and other banks of an estimated $1 trillion in soured mortgage debt so they can start lending freely again. Mr. Gross calls the plan a “win-win-win” for the banks, taxpayers and Pimco investors.

Disinterested observer, if they exist, woul dnot understand things as well as Bill Gross --and, just what the heck IS a disinterested observer?
The government is planning to announce soon which money managers will participate. A spokesman for the Treasury Department would not say whether Pimco would be one of them.

Well, I'd put a few bucks on Bill gross being chosen.
IN many ways, it is perfectly logical for the White House to turn to someone like Mr. Gross at such a time. Few investors understand the mortgage market better. As co-chief investment officer, he personally manages Pimco’s flagship, the Total Return fund, which has $158 billion in assets. As of the end of May, he had invested 61 percent of the fund’s money in mortgage bonds.

61% of 158 billion is more than 90 billion bucks ($96.38, in fact); a lot of money, anyway it's counted.

Friday, January 30, 2009

Global Worries Over U.S. Stimulus Spending

Even as Congress looks for ways to expand President Obama’s $819 billion stimulus package, the rest of the world is wondering how Washington will pay for it all.

Print money, for now; make the economy grow.

Few people attending the World Economic Forum question the need to kick-start America’s economy, the world’s largest, with a package that could reach $1 trillion over two years. But the long-term fallout from increased borrowing by the United Stated government, and its potential to drive up inflation and interest rates around the world, seems to getting more attention here than in Washington.

The long term? If nothing drastic is done in the short term, the long term won't matter.

While the focus in Washington has been on putting together a stimulus package that will attract broader political support when it comes up for a vote in the Senate, here in Davos the talk has been about the coming avalanche of Treasury debt needed to pay for the plan on top of the bailout measures approved last fall, like the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP.

What is the alternative?

“Even before Obama walked through the White House door, there were plans for $1 trillion of new debt,” said Niall Ferguson, a Harvard historian who has studied borrowing and its impact on national power. He now estimates that some $2.2 trillion in new government debt will be issued this year, assuming the stimulus plan is approved.

“You either crowd out other borrowers or you print money,” Mr. Ferguson added. “There is no way you can have $2.2 trillion in borrowing without influencing interest rates or inflation in the long-term.”

Doesn't the US economy need to inflated?

While Mr. Ferguson is a skeptic of the Keynesian thinking behind President Obama’s plan — rather than borrowing and spending to stimulate the economy, he favors corporate tax cuts — even supporters of the plan like Mr. Zedillo and Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley have called on the White House to quickly address how it will pay for the spending in the long-term.

Tax cuts? I wonder what Bill Gross think?

To PIMCO, the remedy for this deflationary delevering and mini-depression is simple and almost axiomatic: stop the decline in asset price.