Showing posts with label Forecasting. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Forecasting. Show all posts

Thursday, July 3, 2008

Workers Face Woes Beyond Job Losses

In the Wednesday morning WSJ newspaper, the forecast was:

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases June employment data Thursday morning. Economists figure nonfarm payrolls contracted by 55,000 jobs and that the unemployment rate fell to 5.4%, unwinding a bit of May's half-percentage-point jump.

Actual announcement:

U.S. nonfarm payrolls shrank for a sixth consecutive month, decreasing by 62,000 jobs in June, as businesses retrenched in the face of rising costs and a weak economy. The month's unemployment rate held at 5.5%, after rising sharply in May.

So:
55,000 and 5.4%
62,000 and 5.5%

7,000 more jobs lost than forecast, and unemployment rate stayed at five and a half percent.

Friday, March 21, 2008

An oracle looks at the financial markets

We're in stage two of a bear markets, contends Howard Marks. He is chairman of Oaktree Capital Management, the low-profile but powerful Los Angeles firm that manages more than $50 billion in alternative investments. (WSJ article: A Marks primer on Bull and Bear)