Showing posts with label Geopolitics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Geopolitics. Show all posts

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

A Superpower Stirs

Interesting analysis of China's emerging role as a world power. Some nice historical touches add to the interest. And then there are three details that jump out:


1. Zbigniew Brzezinski, the U.S. national security adviser under Jimmy Carter, proposed a drastically slimmer G20—a G2, the U.S. and China—to deal with the nuclear threat posed by Iran and North Korea; the Israeli-Palestinian conflict; India-Pakistan tensions; climate change.

Interesting, though one wonders how that would go over with the other 18, beginning with Russia.

2. A military parade last month to mark the 60th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China sent a powerful message to China's 1.3 billion people. The intercontinental ballistic missiles that rumbled down Beijing's Avenue of Eternal Peace, and the tanker planes that lumbered overhead, signaled that China not only was at last a strong country, but also could project power beyond its shores.

The CIA's website estimates China's 2008 GDP as $7.992 trillion. It's rated as number 3 in the world. Other numbers are: $7.332 trillion (2007 est.) $6.489 trillion (2006 est.)

Last night on World Focus news I heard a reporter state that China's annual military budget is $75 billion. The CIA website has: Military expenditures: 4.3% of GDP (2006) country comparison to the world: 25. 4.3% of GDP is $ 279,027,000,000.

Now, the US numbers: 4.06% (take a look at that table). GDP:$14.44 trillion (2008 est.) country comparison to the world: 2. (The EU is #1) $14.38 trillion (2007 est.) $14.09 trillion (2006 est.)

3. Some two-and-a-half millennia ago, the Chinese philosopher Laozi wrote: "Governing a large country is like frying a small fish." The advice was aimed at the scholar-officials that ran China—a Mandarin class that became a model of governance for the ancient world. The light touch has never been a hallmark of Communist rule, or of its statecraft. That matters greatly in a world in which influence and legitimacy derive more than ever from the attractiveness of a country's governing ideals.

Really?

Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Georgia is the graveyard of America's unipolar world

More on W's legacy.

what is clear is that America's unipolar moment has passed - and the new world order heralded by Bush's father in the dying days of the Soviet Union in 1991 is no more. The days when one power was able to bestride the globe like a colossus, enforcing its will in every continent, challenged only by popular movements for national independence and isolated "rogue states", are now over. For nearly two decades, while Russia sunk into "catastroika" and China built an economic powerhouse, the US has exercised unprecedented and unaccountable global power, arrogating to itself and its allies the right to invade and occupy other countries, untroubled by international law or institutions, sucking ever more states into the orbit of its voracious military alliance.

A fascinating article.

Friday, August 15, 2008

Bush Says Russia Must Stop ‘Bullying’ Georgia

This incident will be part of W's legacy.

Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Bush, Sending Aid, Demands That Moscow Withdraw

Joao Silva for The New York Times

Russian soldiers traveled near the village of Orjosani, Georgia. More Photos »


This has the effect of more deeply involving the US in the ongoing war in Georgia. It is, to say the least, risky. It also fairly much guarantees that where the US wishes Russia's cooperation, primarily with Iran, that is now not going to happen. It is clearly a calculated move, calling Russia's bluff.


timedia

Convoys of Troops and RefugeesSlide Show

Convoys of Troops and Refugees

Map

The Question is: Why?

Just why did Russia unleash its mighty military machine on tiny Georgia? A geopolitical quiz.

Al-Jazeera has it this way: The heavy fighting between Russian and Georgian forces appears to have ended after the two sides agreed to an EU-backed ceasefire plan.

Now, Russia has about 140 million people, and the arsenal of a former, and nascent, super-power. Georgia has about 4.6 million people. [Dig: these are numbers from the CIA World fact Book, which likely means Big Brother is watching; do be careful.]

So, a former super-power wanting to assert its virility, up against a pup with less than 5 million people -- this is not a pissing contest between Georgia and Russia, but between Russia and and the US, and one has To hope that Condie Rice and W Bush got enough cojones to match up against Vlad Putin (not a bet I'd be glad to make).

Sunday, August 10, 2008

Russia Widens Attacks on Georgia


Ain't getting any better.

Saturday, August 9, 2008

Russia, Georgia Clash Over Breakaway Province

One of W Bush's bold moves is being challenged: he has called Georgia a beacon of freedom, and it, in turn, has sought to join NATO.

Sandwiched between Russia and Georgia, South Ossetia has a population of just 70,000. The pro-Russian region first sought to break from Georgia in the early 1990s in the tumult that followed the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

What will Bush do in response?

Russia and U.S. ally Georgia were on the brink of war Friday after Moscow sent troops and tanks into Georgia's breakaway province of South Ossetia, in a dangerous escalation of a long-simmering conflict in the strategically important Caucasus.

Georgia is right under Russia's southern border; to encourage it to join NATO is absurd, part of the Bush-Cheney arrogance.

In Tbilisi, the Georgian capital, President Mikhail Saakashvili said he was preparing to declare marshal law and that his country was under attack. "We have Russian tanks moving in," he told national television, ordering troops to mobilize. In a series of international TV interviews, he said the conflict was a struggle between the Western values he espouses and Russian aggression.

Marshal law? Is that General Marshal, or another marshal? Oy.

Thursday, June 26, 2008

America’s Next Chapter

Former Senator Hart wrote a thought-provoking op-ed piece for the NY Times yesterday (Wednesday 26 June). The first thing that occurs to me is not "if only he'd kept his pecker in his pants" but "why did he dare the media to catch him?"

How badly is Hart's name damaged? This badly: in the Senate.gov website I entered "Gary Hart" in the search box, and the number 2 hit was this item:

Gary Hart's Townhouse
517 6th Street, SE, Washington, DC
During his presidential campaign, Gary Hart, a Democrat U.S. Senator from Colorado, challenged reporters to find evidence of rumored philandering. The Miami Herald took up the challenge and staked out Hart's Capitol Hill townhouse. When Donna Rice arrived one night and didn't leave until the next morning, the newspaper ran the story. Hart claimed that reporters didn't watch both entrances to the home and could not have seen when Rice entered and left the building. But his presidential campaign was permanently damaged and he ultimately withdrew from the race.

The item is in the Scandalous Sites section of Senator Mike Crapo of Idaho (hey, the rhymes: Crapo Idaho. Some name, huh? He must've gotten a lot of flak in school).

Anyways, Gary Hart served in the Senate from 1975 to 1986. His biography includes that he graduated Bethany (Okla.) Navarene College 1958, Yale Divinity School 1961, Yale University Law School 1964, and earned a Ph.D. at Oxford University in 2001. So he went back to get his Ph.D. long after lkeaving the Senate. An accomplished man, intelligent, flawed.

In his essay he writes of the cycles evident in American history, as Schlesinger and Emerson and Henry Adams wrote.

What matters more than the length of the cycles is that these swings, between what Schlesinger called periods of reform and periods of consolidation, clearly occur. If we somewhat arbitrarily fix the age of Franklin D. Roosevelt as 1932 to 1968 and the era of Ronald Reagan as 1968 to 2008, a new cycle of American political history — a cycle of reform — is due.

Interesting to see FDR's age extended all the way to 1968, nearly a quarter century after he died. And to see Reagan's age begin a dozen years before he became president. Yet I can see what he means.

He postulates that Republicans, the religious right on social issues, the radical tax cutters or “supply-siders” on economic issues, and the neoconservatives on foreign policy have produced only superficial religiosity, a failed war and record deficits, and that traditional conservatives, who are dedicated to resistance to government intrusion into private lives, fiscal discipline and caution on military interventions, have yet to re-emerge, and may not.

He sees the internecine warfare of the GOP lasting as much as a decade. Fine by me.

Democrats, meanwhile, have yet to produce a coherent ideological framework to replace the New Deal, despite an eight-year experiment in “triangulation” and an undefined “centrism.” Once elected, Barack Obama would have a rare opportunity to define a new Democratic Party. He could preside over the beginning of a new political cycle that, if relevant to the times, would dominate American politics for three or four decades to come.

No Clinton fan, clearly.

Noting the power of “custom and fear,” and “of orthodoxy and of complacency,” Schlesinger believed that “the subversion of old ideas by the changing environment” would give a new leader the best chance to create a new cycle of reform and innovation.

Subvert the prevailing orthodoxy by changing conditions in order to institute change.

Senator Obama’s attempt to introduce the next American cycle should include, at minimum, three elements. National security requires a new, expanded, post-cold-war definition. America must transition from a consumer economy to a producing one. And the moral obligations of our stewardship of the planet must become paramount.

Very sensible to redefine the national strategy. But the US to become a production economy? Producer of what? The US has old plants, a post-industrial, service-based economy, high wages (relative to other nations), a focus on quarterly and annual results, no national vision or plan; how can it become a producer?

The next cycle of American history is as yet unframed, awaiting a national leader who can define a new role for government at home and a new role for America in the world of the 21st century.

Before it is too late, if it already isn't: the US is sinking, China, Brazil, India and Russia are rising, and we're arguing about prayer in school, guns, and abortion.