This story begins this way: One big fact has largely been lost in the recent coverage of the Democratic presidential race: Hillary Rodham Clinton has virtually no chance of winning.
This is hardball politics, and the Clintons know how to play.
The notion of the Democratic contest being a dramatic cliffhanger is a game of make-believe. The real question is why so many people are playing. The answer has more to do with media psychology than with practical politics.
Again, the Clinton's camp complaints that she was getting unfair treatment affected the media. Plus, they are all part of the same Potomac Land circle -- and here I do think that Clinton appearing on Saturday Night Live had an impact, on the media, who also watch SNL.
The media are also enamored of the almost mystical ability of the Clintons to work their way out of tight jams, as they have done for 16 years at the national level. That explains why some reporters are inclined to believe the Clinton campaign when it talks about how she’s going to win on the third ballot at the Democratic National Convention in August. That’s certainly possible — and, to be clear, we’d love to see the race last that long — but it’s folly to write about this as if it is likely.
Spin control has worked.
It’s also hard to overstate the role the talented Clinton camp plays in shaping the campaign narrative, first by subtly lowering the bar for the performance necessary to remain in the race, and then by keeping the focus on Obama’s relationships with a political fixer and a controversial pastor in Illinois. But even some of Clinton’s own advisers now concede that she cannot win unless Obama is hit by a political meteor. Something that merely undermines him won't be enough. It would have to be some development that essentially disqualifies him.
The one tactic she has that might work for her is negative attacks. A Clinton specialty.
To foster doubt about Obama, Clinton supporters are using a whisper and pressure campaign to make an 11th-hour argument to party insiders that he would be a weak candidate in November despite his superior standing at the moment.
Psst! He's black.
A Democratic strategist said that given the unlikelihood of prevailing any other way, Clinton now must “scare” superdelegates “who basically just want to win.”
That might play out this way: see, the earth is scorched {never mind we scorched it} and he can't win. If I'm not the candidate, we lose -- or, Republicans win.
Her advisers say privately that the nominee will be clear by the end of June. At the same time, they recognize that the nominee probably is clear already. What has to irk Clinton's aides is that they felt she might finally have him on the ropes, bruised badly by the Wright fight and wobbly in polls. But the bell rang long ago in the minds of too many voters.
No comments:
Post a Comment